Is now a good time to buy on the Costa del Sol? What the 2026 figures say

What the official figures say about the Costa del Sol property market in 2026, and how I read them for someone deciding whether to buy this year. The numbers below come from the national statistics office, the land registrars, the notaries and the largest property portal, each linked where it is used. The question of whether it is a good time to buy is really two questions: what the market is doing, and what that means for one buyer and one home. This guide takes them in that order. If you want the town-by-town price picture, that is in what your money buys, town by town.

Prices: still rising in the sales figures, pausing in the asking prices

The clearest measure of what homes actually sell for is the house price index from the national statistics office, which is built from the prices in signed deeds. For the second quarter of 2026 it was 12.2% higher than a year earlier, with second-hand homes up 12.9% and new builds up 7.4%. Andalucía was up 11.9%. Prices rose 3.4% in the quarter alone.

The land registrars measure the same thing from the deeds that reach the property register, with a lag of a few weeks. Their figures for the second quarter of 2026 put the national average at a record 2,487 euros per square metre, 9.2% higher than a year earlier. In Málaga province the average registered price over the previous twelve months was 3,254 euros per square metre, 10.8% higher than the year before, and the second-quarter figure was 3,347. Málaga city, at 3,401 euros per square metre, was 14.7% higher than a year earlier, one of the fastest rises among Spain’s provincial capitals.

Asking prices tell a slightly different story, because they show what sellers are hoping for today rather than what buyers agreed months ago. The idealista index for August 2026 recorded the first monthly fall at national level since late 2022, a dip of 0.3%, after 43 months of rises. The national asking price was still 12.5% higher than in August 2025. In Málaga province asking prices were up 5.1% on the year, and in Málaga city the August figure of 3,938 euros per square metre was a record but unchanged on the month.

Two things follow from putting those series side by side. The prices homes are sold for on the Costa del Sol are still rising at close to double digits. And the pace of asking prices has slowed to about half that, which is usually the first sign that sellers are meeting more resistance.

Marbella sits above all of these averages. The notaries’ figures reported in August 2026 put the average home sold there at 803,522 euros, or 4,894 euros per square metre, a rise of 38.3% since 2022. San Pedro de Alcántara averaged 714,050 euros.

Sales: fewer homes changing hands nationally, more in Málaga

Fewer homes are being sold in Spain than a year ago. The land registrars counted 167,934 sales in the second quarter of 2026, 5.7% fewer than the quarter before and 2.3% fewer than the same quarter of 2025, the second quarterly fall in a row. The statistics office’s monthly count shows sales for the first half of 2026 down 2.6% on the first half of 2025, although June itself was up 1.6%, and Andalucía was up 1.7% in June.

Málaga province ran against the national trend in the second quarter. The registrars recorded 9,387 sales there, 7.7% more than in the first quarter. The increase was all in resale homes, up 16.2%, while new-build sales fell 7%. Over the previous twelve months the province recorded 35,839 sales, 2.3% fewer than the year before.

The explanation most analysts give for falling sales is not a lack of buyers. BBVA Research expects sales to fall 7.3% across 2026 and prices to rise 12%, and puts both down to the same cause: there are not enough homes for sale. It expects about 223,000 new households to form in Spain in 2026 against about 153,000 housing starts, and estimates the accumulated shortfall at around 885,000 homes by 2027. Its forecast for 2027 is a small recovery in sales and a further 5.7% rise in prices.

Who is buying: a record share from abroad

International buyers took a record share of the Spanish market in the second quarter of 2026: 15.98% of all purchases, a little over 26,800 homes, according to the land registrars. British buyers were the largest group at 6.99% of foreign purchases, with Dutch buyers at 6.94% and German buyers at 6.11% close behind. In Málaga province the foreign share was 37.01%, up 2.71 points on the quarter and second only to Alicante among Spanish provinces.

The notaries split foreign buyers into those who live in Spain and those who do not, and their report for the second half of 2025 shows the two groups moving in different directions. Purchases by foreigners resident in Spain rose 3.3%, while purchases by non-residents fell 15.1%. In Andalucía, foreign purchases fell 3.9% to 12,427. So the record foreign share is being carried by people who have already moved here, and the pure holiday-home buyer has become more cautious. That matters for anyone buying from abroad, because it means less competition for the same home than in 2023 and 2024.

What non-residents pay, and why it matters more than the cycle

The same notaries’ report contains the figure I would put in front of any buyer from abroad. In the second half of 2025, non-resident foreign buyers paid an average of 3,242 euros per square metre. Foreigners living in Spain paid 1,963. Spanish buyers paid 1,839. Swedish buyers paid the most of any nationality at 3,654 euros per square metre, followed by German buyers at 3,559 and American buyers at 3,501.

Some of that gap is what non-residents choose to buy: a sea view in Estepona rather than a flat in a working suburb, a new build rather than a 1980s block. That part is a choice and there is nothing wrong with it. The rest is how the purchase is made. A buyer who flies in for three days, views eight homes and does not know what the last five sales in the building went for tends to pay what is asked. A buyer with the registered sales in hand, a straight view of what the home is genuinely worth and someone negotiating on their behalf tends not to. Over a purchase of 400,000 euros, that difference is usually larger than anything the market does in a year.

That is why I would not put the timing question first. The market decides the average. Research and negotiation decide what you pay for the one home you actually buy.

Mortgage rates: higher than a year ago

If you are borrowing, the cost of money has moved against you over the past twelve months. The twelve-month Euribor, the reference rate for most Spanish variable mortgages, averaged about 2.95% in August 2026 and about 3.19% in September, against about 2.17% in September 2025. The land registrars put the average rate on new mortgages registered in the second quarter of 2026 at 3.03%, with fixed-rate loans at 2.92% and variable-rate loans at 3.24%. Just under 64% of new borrowers chose a fixed rate, and the average term was just under 26 years.

For a non-resident the bank’s conditions on deposit and paperwork matter more than a quarter of a point on the rate, and those are set out in mortgages in Spain for non-residents. The one thing I would take from the rate figures is that waiting for cheaper borrowing has not paid off so far, because prices have risen faster than any saving on the rate would have been worth.

How I read the 2026 figures

Put together, the numbers describe a market that has come off the boil without cooling. Sales are down a little, asking prices have paused, and the holiday-home buyer from abroad is more careful than two years ago. At the same time, the prices homes actually sell for are still rising at close to 10% a year in Málaga province, the share of buyers from abroad is at a record, and the shortage of homes that drives all of it is not going to be built away in a year or two.

For a buyer, I read that as follows:

• There is more room to negotiate than in 2024 or 2025. When asking prices stop rising and sales slow, homes that were priced on hope sit for longer. A seller three months in is a different conversation from a seller three days in.
• There is no sign of a fall to wait for in the places international buyers want. The forecasts, the supply figures and the foreign demand all point the same way. Waiting has a cost, and on the Costa del Sol that cost has run at roughly 10% a year.
• Realistically priced homes still sell quickly. So the work of being ready to buy, which means the NIE number, the lawyer, the proof of funds and a clear brief, should be done before the search starts, not after the right home appears. The steps are in the Spanish buying process in plain English.
• Judge value from registered sales, not from asking prices. The portal shows what sellers want. The registry and the notaries show what buyers paid. The gap between the two is where the 75% premium lives.
• Treat headlines about taxes on foreign buyers as what they are. The proposal announced in 2025 remains a proposal, and the taxes you actually pay on a purchase in Andalucía are unchanged. The dated position is in the 100% tax on foreign buyers: what is actually true, and the real purchase costs are in what a Costa del Sol purchase really costs.

So is 2026 a good time to buy on the Costa del Sol? For the right home at a price the registered sales support, yes. For any home at the asking price, it was never a good time, and it is not now.

How I handle it

My approach is the same at every price point: proper research on the property and its area, a straight assessment of what it is genuinely worth, and careful negotiation on your behalf. On a purchase in 2026 that means starting from the registered sales in the building or the urbanisation rather than from the listing, saying plainly when a home is priced above what the evidence supports, and using the slower market to negotiate on the homes that have sat rather than chasing the ones that have just come on. If you are weighing up whether to buy this year, that conversation is part of the buying service, and you can book a call to talk it through.

Figures last checked on 22 September 2026 against the sources linked above. Markets move and forecasts are only forecasts, so treat this page as a dated reading of the evidence rather than a prediction.

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